Our Methodology
How We Price Sports Cards
No black box. No "trust us." Here's the exact methodology we use to arrive at every cash offer — same sources, same math, every time.
The 5-Step Process
- 1
Identify the card
Year, set, manufacturer, card number, parallel/variation, and print run if numbered. A 2018 Topps Chrome Ronald Acuña Jr. rookie is a different card from a 2018 Topps Chrome Refractor /250 Acuña — those two cards can be 10x apart in value.
- 2
Assess condition honestly
Centering (front and back), corners, edges, surface — the same four sub-grades PSA uses. For raw cards we estimate a likely grade range (e.g. "PSA 7–8 candidate") because that range is what the comp data has to match.
- 3
Pull recent sold comps
We pull the last 60–90 days of sold listings from eBay (not active listings — those are wishful pricing) and cross-reference 130point and recent auction-house results (Goldin, PWCC, Heritage). Outliers get tossed. We use the median of clean comparable sales, not the high or the low.
- 4
Adjust for trend
Modern player markets can move 20–30% in a single playoff series. If the comp median is from 60 days ago but the player just had a breakout, we adjust up. If the player is cooling, we adjust down — but we tell you which direction and why.
- 5
Apply our margin
We're a buyer, not a charity — there has to be a margin between our offer and the comp median to cover fees, grading costs (if applicable), and inventory risk. Typical margin is 25–40% on raw modern, tighter (15–25%) on graded vintage where liquidity is high. We'll tell you the comp number and the offer number side by side so the math is visible.
Worked Example: A Real Offer
Here's an actual evaluation walkthrough using the methodology above. Names anonymized; numbers are real.
The card: 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto, modern MLB shortstop
Step 1 — Identify
2020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autograph, base refractor (not numbered). Confirmed via card back and serial check.
Step 2 — Condition
Raw. Centering ~55/45, sharp corners, clean edges, one minor print speck on surface. Estimated PSA 8–9 candidate, leaning 8.
Step 3 — Comp data (last 75 days, eBay sold + 130point)
- PSA 9 median: $420 (n=14 sales)
- PSA 8 median: $240 (n=9 sales)
- Raw clean copies: $170–$210 range (n=22 sales)
Step 4 — Trend adjust
Player is mid-season, performing in line with expectations. No adjustment.
Step 5 — Offer math
Raw comp center: $190. Apply ~30% raw modern margin → cash offer: $135.
We also told the seller: if they grade it and it comes back PSA 9, market value jumps to ~$420. Grading cost + risk = roughly $50 all-in, ~6 week turnaround. Their call. They took the $135 because they wanted cash now — but they had the full picture to make the call.
Our Data Sources
- eBay Sold Listings — the deepest pool of real transaction data in the hobby. We filter to the last 60–90 days and discard outliers (returns, mispriced lots).
- 130point.com — aggregates eBay + other marketplace sales with cleaner deduplication than eBay's own search.
- Goldin, PWCC, Heritage Auctions — for high-end and vintage cards, recent auction realizations give a more accurate ceiling than eBay-only data.
- PSA Population Report — for graded cards, we check pop counts. A low pop in a given grade can support a premium above straight comp median.
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The Offer Desk
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